Hoće li 2020. biti godina početka ekonomskog oporavka?

Ekonomija Bosne i Hercegovine posljednjih godina jeste bilježila određene pomake i rast, ali rastu i sva druga gospodarstva u Europi, pa smo i dalje “crna rupa” Starog kontinenta.

Na to jasno ukazuju domaća ali posebno međunarodna istraživanja koja iz mjeseca u mjesec zorno pokazuju zaostajanja čak i za regijom, a kamoli razvijenim zapadnoeuropskim ekonomijama. Kada dodamo potpuno devastirano obrazovanje logično je da kao posljedicu godinama imamo debeli minusi u prirodnom priraštaju te masovni odlazak mladih i sposobnih osoba.

Nažalost, politika u našoj zemlji na to niti ima niti zna odgovor, nego se u dalje vodila uhodanim receptima za propast – sjesti u udobne i skupe fotelje, u glomazni i neefikasni javni sektor uhljebiti što više svojih poslušnika, a kada nestane novca dodatno se zadužiti.

Poražavajući pokazatelji

Sve to nas je pak dovelo u situaciju da smo po nezaposlenosti mladih osoba ne u europskom nego u svjetskom vrhu s nekolicinom afričkih zemalja. Ukupna nezaposlenost nam je također među najgorima u Europi, a više od polovice zaposlenih prima plaću manju od 700 maraka (potrošačka košara za četveročlanu obitelj iznosi oko dvije tisuće maraka). Mirovine su nam i dalje među najmanjima u Europi i pravo je malo čudo na koji način umirovljenici preživljavaju iz mjeseca u mjesec.

Po “Indeksu konkurentnosti” daleko smo najgora ekonomija u Europi a po “Lakoći poslovanja” druga najgora. Indeks korupcije iz godine u godinu pokazuju da nema nikakvog napretka a cijela nas Europa već desetljećima etiketira kao leglo korupcije. Jedan u nizu indikatora siromaštva objavila je i Svjetska banka prošle godine prema kojem čak 40 posto odraslih žitelja naše zemlje nema bankovni račun što sugerira da su bez posla, na granici siromaštva ili neizvjesnoj financijskoj situaciji. Frapantan podatak prezentiran je u publikaciji Agencije za statistiku BiH “Upotreba informacijsko-komunikacijskih tehnologija u BiH 2018.” – čak 31,6 posto osoba u BiH nikada nije koristilo računar, a 24,2 posto nikad nije koristilo Internet. Pretpostavlja se da čak 20 posto naših žitelja živio ispod granice siromaštva, a oko 50 posto njih na toj granici.

Formula uspjeha

Naravno, i mali dio obih podataka za normalu vlast biti bi dovoljni da se stvari iz korijena počnu mijenjati kako bi barem sami sebi pružili priliku uhvatiti regiji. To se u BiH nikada nije dogodilo. Faruk Hadžić, makroekonomski analitičar, već dulje vrijeme upozorava na pogubne trendove koji će, ukoliko se nastave, sve nas dovesti u još goru situaciju. Isto tako, nudi i rješenja koja bi pomogla izaći iz blata u koje tonemo.

– Prvi korak koji treba napraviti država jeste smanjenje poreza i doprinosa. Ukidanjem poreza na dohodak do tisuću maraka povećati će se plaće radnika i potrošnja. Također, smanjenjem doprinosa na plaće dodatno će se povećati plaće i omogućiti jeftiniji rad. Povećanjem potrošnje na razini ekonomije država će prikupiti više novca kroz neizravne poreze, pojašnjava Hadžić.

Također, kaže kako će rast potrošnje voditi do povećanja proizvodnje i otvaranja novih radnih mjesta, te dovesti do povećanja potražnje na tržištu. Sve to bi dovelo do povećanja ekonomske aktivnosti a samim time i boljeg standarda naših žitelja.

Je li napokon došlo vrijeme da se bh. političke elite sklone od turobnih rasprava o prošlosti i podizanja međunacionalnih tenzija te okrenu krucijalnim, životnim pitanjima veliko je pitanje. A upravo to je nasušno potrebno ukoliko želimo imati osnovnu supstancu društva, a to su ljudi. U protivnom, amo ćemo iz mjeseca u mjesec nastaviti zbrajati one koji odlaze.

Piše: Dragan Bradvica

[email protected]

40 thoughts on “Hoće li 2020. biti godina početka ekonomskog oporavka?

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